The Macro Monthly examines economic trends with a particular focus on trend continuation and turning points.
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The aim of the Macro Monthly is the cover “everything.” A butterfly’s wing flap in the Amazon can “cause” a tornado in Texas. IR&M does not “forecast” the butterfly’s wing flap. The aim is to spot the turbulence very early. The research, therefore, is fact-based, not opinion-based. Conclusions are drawn objectively from changing conditions, not on someone’s subjective opinion. Turbulence can emanate anywhere. The Macro Monthly therefore covers all asset classes, and, ideally, all regions. However, a stronger focus is given to the US, Europe/Eurozone, the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Switzerland, Japan, China, Australia and the Emerging Markets complex.
IR&M uses proprietary economic models to assess cyclical and intra-cyclical trends for risk assessment. The models were designed to reveal cyclical and intra-cyclical trends as well as turning points. The better-safe-than-sorry adage applies. The practical relevance is that when facing a head wind economically, one ought to manage risk more conservatively. The trend is important for portfolio rebalancing, position sizing, and tactical asset allocation. The turning point is central to risk management. The top-down analysis is accompanied by diligent earnings momentum monitoring. IR&M uses orthodox as well as less-common, intuitive approaches to assess valuations and the associated risks thereof. Astute big picture thinking, timely method to “flation” risk, comprehensive financial risk analysis, and meticulous momentum monitoring are geared towards adding perspective and improved decision making.
The research focus is on uncertainty, not just risk. Uncertainty is multi-faceted and includes policy errors related to socio-economic or monetary experiments, corruption, expropriation, negative compounding of capital, war, etc.
IR&M’s Macro Monthly is very visual with little text in response to the institutional investor’s overload on reading material. Some of the regular visuals need getting used to. However, once familiar with the format, the trend-continuation or turn-around of large amounts of data becomes clear with the regular updates very efficiently. More than 99% of the material avoids derivatives or quant jargon. However, the research is targeted at the institutional and/or risk-savvy private investor and basic financial and economic concepts are a prerequisite.
Institutional investors and risk-savvy private investors
Ineichen Research and Management ("IR&M") is a research firm focusing on investment themes related to absolute returns and risk management. IR&M was founded in 2009 and is an independent company, fully owned by Alexander Ineichen. IR&M is based near Zug, Switzerland, a healthy distance to the main epicentres of mainstream financial thinking. IR&M’s research is designed to improve its clients’ investment decision making. The basic premise is the idea that long-term success is dependent on survival and avoidance of large losses, i.e., the management of risk, not returns.
The price for a subscription to IR&M’s Macro Monthly is US$240 for three months. All subscriptions are auto-renewed at the end of the subscription term. If you do not want to renew your subscription, you may cancel prior to the end of the subscription.